The communication protocol
we refer to as IP has already had an enormous
impact on the way people all over the world
conduct business and their personal lives.
Yet still greater change will come as wireless
technology continues to evolve from its current
nascent capabilities, and much of the attention
today is focused on 3G technology and the word “convergence” – whether
it be the device, service, fixed or wireless.
In trying to add intelligently to this debate,
I am reminded of a comment made by Bill Gates
in the 1990s to the effect that he tended to
overestimate the short term and underestimate
the long term when considering the impact of
technology. It is fair to say that the impact
of 3G has already been overestimated - the
pertinent questions for now are:
- what might convergence look like for end
users?
- what is the future of 3G in a fully converged
world?
- what are the challenges for the various
technology providers – from operators to
content providers?
I have no doubt that if I were able to travel
forward in time 10 years, I would find a world
where wireless technology was integrated seamlessly
into so many devices that it has become commonplace
to exchange information through the airwaves
from our cars, while on the train, on planes
as well as while sitting in parks, without
giving the slightest thought to the access
technology. Anyone who has travelled on the
train system in Tokyo (or, as I am assured,
Seoul ) will have little trouble agreeing with
this vision and might argue that the future
is much closer than we realize.
Yet the focus is still on
different access technologies: Wi-Fi in a café,
3G to my mobile phone while roaming away from
a PC, and Bluetooth for device-to-device communication
such as synchronizing a mobile phone's database
with a laptop. Promises of higher bandwidth
come with HSDPA and Wi-Max. Yet to the end
user, the key issue is the experience of the
service on offer, not the underlying technology
that supports access. And it is now that we
are starting to see useful applications evolve
to take advantage of the existing technology:
for example bar-codes that can be photographed
by a mobile phone camera and sent, via MMS,
to retrieve data such as the current schedule
for a bus route. It seems clear that the symbiotic
relationship between applications and the edge
access devices that they run on will shape
the path that convergence takes over the next
few years.
Consider the following scenario: While users
will own many devices that utilize wireless
technology, I find it hard to imagine anyone
watching a full length movie on a screen much
smaller than a paperback. Consequently, I believe
people will use a broadband access device,
much like today's laptops, to download and
view media-rich content such as movies, news
and sports while away from home (at home they
will use the latest in home entertainment systems
that are increasingly available). While out
and about, smaller devices similar in size
to today's PDAs will provide convenient access
to applications such as email, MMS, and data
downloads.
Additionally, people will
use different styles of device depending on
the time of day. During the working day, the
PDA-sized device provides email and voice communication,
with access to Internet-based information.
During the evening, a person may pick up another,
slimmer device that is used primarily for voice.
For the style conscious, this is likely to
be as much about status as functionality (consider
the success of the iPod). It will have the
ability to display text information on the
discreet LCD screen that is on the side, providing
real-time updates – some
of it information fed in real-time from the
broadband device or the home computer. However
its prime function will be as a telephone.
People will want their devices
to communicate intelligently and seamlessly.
For example, someone may initiate a search
for information on their broadband device while
sitting in a café, the results of the
search may be communicated to the PDA-style
device while the person is walking around.
The two devices might communicate in an intelligent
manner to provide a guided tour of a city,
with the broadband device (now in a back-pack)
caching much of the data, and sending only
the information that is necessary (e.g. turn
right at the next traffic lights) to the smaller
mobile device. Once the user is at a location
where they can access the broadband access
device, they will be able to view a host of
rich multimedia content relevant to their journey.
Additionally, end users will
want their devices to be able to “understand” which device is
being used currently – I come home at the end
of the day and drop off my PDA and broadband
access device and go out for dinner with my
smaller, sleeker phone. The transition of devices
should be as seamless as possible - at the
touch of a button at the most. While much of
this technology exists today, the challenge
remains to provide inter-operability between
the different devices. Applications need to
work in an intuitive way, providing us with
the right information at the right time in
the right format based on what we are doing
and where we are. I may be happy to sit and
watch a 10-minute video on the history of Notre
Dame on my broadband device or PDA while sitting
in a Paris café. However, while walking
round the back streets of the city I want simple
instructions sent to a device I can hold in
one hand and access almost without thought.
And all of this functionality
will occur without the end user giving a second
thought to the underlying access technology.
Companies that today provide mobile phone access
using 2.5G and 3G technology will need to embrace
other access technologies including Wi-Fi and
Wi-Max (or the equivalent technology). Existing
PTTs will look to expand their reach to the
end user via wireless technology. Both these
trends are evident today to varying degrees.
The demands for real- time content – for example, news,
financial, and live sports – will also drive
demand for exceptionally reliable high-performance
IP networks, capable of carrying the data across
countries and regions.
While attending the GSM congress in Cannes
in February, I was struck by the difference
in booth size and advertising spend of equipment
manufactures compared to content providers.
It did not look as if the content providers
were benefiting to the same degree from the
promise of 3G. For mobile content to flourish,
content application providers need to have
economic incentives to create new content,
allowing them to experiment with different
applications. Yet many mobile network operators
(MNO) fear a fate similar to that of the fixed
line operators - as wireless IP pipe providers
- and consequently control access to content
to ensure a larger piece of the profits. Yet
this control tends to limit the growth and
evolution of mobile content and applications.
The NTT i-mode platform is one solution, providing
an environment for different application providers
to set up shop in the mobile space for a given
mobile network provider, with access to the
MNO's billing engine for payment. An extension
of this solution could, I propose, come from
the network companies currently developing
solutions to support and deliver thigh payload,
real-time data between countries. Open content
platform and delivery systems would provide
the ability for different content applications
to be supported and delivered to multiple mobile
network operators. The benefit of this type
of service, coming from an independent network
operator without any affiliations to an MNO,
is that the content system is accessible to
all MNOs that access the system. Such scope
allows for greater usage of each application
by the end users of all MNOs that use the system,
which in turn creates new opportunities for
further content development.
The economics of making content
work in a way that benefits both content providers
and operators is a critical part of the convergence
question that must be answered if 3G and wireless
technology is to deliver on the imagined promise.
One scenario that can be imagined is differentiated
pricing, based on what is being requested and
location. For example, broadband access through
Wi-Fi in a café might be cheaper than
the same bandwidth through a 3G phone in a
congested cell area. However, the economics
of usage have to enhance the seamlessness of
access as much as the applications and devices,
and end users worrying about price based on
access technology are unlikely to work.
Man's ability to imagine is almost unlimited
and the array of current technologies available
make it that much easier to for us to dream
near endless scenarios for the future of wireless
technologies. The challenge will always be
in providing useful applications that take
advantage of the technology as opposed to pushing
new technology because it is new. Witness the
success of the iPod and iTunes, both perfect
examples of building the correct application
on top of the existing technology. This type
of success needs to be replicated within the
mobile access device. Then the problem may
well become one of not enough wireless bandwidth!